你90%的假设都是错的，但你并不知道是哪90%。“You’ll be 90% wrong about your assumptions. The problem is that you don’t know which 90%.”

这是一份由创业者兼Anchor联合创始人Nir Zicherman整理的创业“地雷清单”，列出了50条创业公司最容易犯下的关键性错误。从战略失误到管理盲区，从产品开发陷阱到心理误区，每一条都来源于他的亲身经历与观察。这份清单像是创业版的《扫雷》指南，帮助初创团队避开那些代价高昂的坑。

1. 创业是场“扫雷游戏”：错误无法避免，但类型却高度相似，可预先识别。
2. 你90%的假设是错的：创业初期不应执着于“我对”，而应快速试错。
3. 不要迷信“首创优势”：不是先推出就赢，而是让用户“以为”你是第一。
4. 复利与小步快跑比爆点更可靠：坚持微小的日常努力，才能构建长期护城河。
5. 错误不只在产品，更常出现在人心与管理层面：动机、焦虑、惰性与短视，是隐性杀手。

创业者最常犯的50个错误

从别人摔倒的地方学起！创业之路充满挑战，但我们可以从他人的失败中汲取经验。这篇文章总结了我亲身经历以及作为顾问和投资人的观察所得，是用“真金白银”换来的教训。

Learn from where others have fallen！The path forward is hard, so learn from where others have fallen. This is a list of very hard-won lessons.

我见过很多创业公司成功，也见过许多失败。我做过顾问，也投资过不少项目。我之前创办的公司 Anchor，也曾经历过各种挑战与错误；我们很幸运挺了过来，最后在2019年被 Spotify 收购。

I’ve seen many startups succeed, and many fail. I’ve consulted for and invested in lots of them. My previous startup, Anchor, navigated its own challenges and missteps; we were fortunate to survive them, and ultimately Spotify acquired the company in 2019.

这些年来，我渐渐把创业看作一场“扫雷游戏”。你还记得早期 PC 里的那款游戏吗？你面对一块空白的方格板，里面藏着地雷。你只能靠猜测和逻辑推理，一步步避开地雷。创业也是一样：创始人面对的虽然是一块“空板”，但地雷是一定存在的，而且其中很多类型是各行各业都共有的。如果你能从一开始就避开这些地雷，就能省下大量的时间、金钱和精力。

Over the years, I’ve come to think of startups as a game of Minesweeper. Remember that game from early PCs? You’d start with a grid of clickable squares, with cartoon mines hidden throughout. Your job was to take a few guesses, gain some information about where the mines were, and logic your way through finding them all. Similarly, startup founders start with an empty board. And although nobody can know their locations, the mines are guaranteed to be there—and certain types of mines are common to every kind of business. A founder can save a lot of time, money, and energy if they know how to avoid these pitfalls from the very start.

经过多年“踩雷”的过程，我总结出了最常见的50个创业错误。（我也经常在自己的通讯 zaxis.page 上分享这类经验）当然，这个清单远远不是终点。虽然每家公司情况不同，但这些经验可以作为你启动任何项目时的“快速通道”。

After many years of navigating mines, I’ve identified the 50 most common ones. (I share lessons like this regularly in my newsletter—which you can find at my website, zaxis.page.) To be clear, this list is far from exhaustive. And while there are certainly exceptions, it can be a great shortcut for anyone leading a new initiative, at any sized company.

准备好开始“扫雷”了吗？以下是我总结出的地雷清单。

Ready to find your mines? Here they are.

1. 以为自己已经知道所有答案

我最喜欢的一条建议是：你对90%的假设都是错的。问题在于——你并不知道是哪90%。所以请尽可能质疑自己的信念，保持开放的心态，并乐于迭代。快速试错和开放心态，是创业成功的两个必要成分。

1 ▶︎ Thinking you have all the answers My favorite piece of advice for startup founders: You’ll be 90% wrong about your assumptions. The problem is that you don’t know which 90%. Therefore, do everything you can to challenge your convictions, and be willing to shed them or tweak them as needed. Rapid iteration and an open mind are two necessary ingredients for a successful startup journey.

2. 忽视“复利效应”的威力

无论是学习新技能、获取客户、还是建立品牌，真正有价值的长期改变都需要时间。推动进步最被低估的方式，就是每天踏实地做微小改进。这些微小的积累，会以惊人的方式放大。就像爱因斯坦曾说过（虽然后来被证明是伪引语）：“复利是世界第八大奇迹。”

2 ▶︎ Ignoring the impact of compounding Meaningful long-term change takes time, be it learning new skills, obtaining new customers, or establishing a brand. The most underrated way to drive improvement is through incremental steps that compound over time. Einstein apocryphally called compound interest the “eighth wonder of the world.” Tiny changes each day multiply to astronomical gains, so long as you’re consistent and committed.

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